Crypto Up/Down
1.What an Up/Down market is
Every 15 minutes Polymarket opens a market: will Bitcoin be higher at the end of the window than at the start (the 'price to beat')? You buy Up or Down. Each contract pays $1.00 if you're right and $0 if you're wrong.
The price of Up (say 62¢) is roughly the crowd's chance that BTC finishes above the price to beat (62%).
2.Reading the price
Buy price = what sellers ask. Sell price = what buyers bid. The middle is the 'fair' read. If Up costs 62¢ and you win, you get $1.00 back: 38¢ profit per contract before fees.
Prices near 50¢ mean the crowd thinks it's a coin flip. Prices near 90¢+ mean it's nearly decided — little upside, big downside.
3.Fees and why small edges vanish
Polymarket US charges takers 0.0695 × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded to the cent — largest near 50¢ (≈1.7¢ per contract, $1.74 per 100).
That means you must be right noticeably more often than the price suggests just to break even. Most people aren't.
4.Your first safe steps
Use the BTC 15m tab in practice mode first. Set a small total budget and a daily loss limit.
Never chase losses; one window tells you nothing. Judge yourself over 50+ bets.
Live examples
"Yes" trades at 56¢ → the crowd's chance is about 56%. $10 buys about 17.3 contracts at 56¢ (+fee), paying $17.33 if it happens.
"Yes" trades at 24¢ → the crowd's chance is about 24%. $10 buys about 38.0 contracts at 25¢ (+fee), paying $38.02 if it happens.
"Yes" trades at 12¢ → the crowd's chance is about 12%. $10 buys about 72.5 contracts at 13¢ (+fee), paying $72.54 if it happens.
Live examples use current Polymarket US prices and refresh every few minutes. Educational only — not financial advice.